Liudmila Samsonova vs Maya Joint Prediction, Pick, Odds for Wimbledon First Round

 

Wimbledon 2025 First Round Preview: Liudmila Samsonova vs. Maya Joint

Match Info:
📅 Tuesday, July 1
⏰ Tentative start: 4:40 a.m. ET
📺 Watch on: ESPN, ESPN+, Tennis Channel

In what may not be the most high-profile clash of the opening round, Tuesday’s matchup between Liudmila Samsonova and Maya Joint shapes up to be one of the more compelling contests. Both players come into Wimbledon with momentum — Joint captured a WTA 250 title in Eastbourne last week, while Samsonova reached the semifinals in Berlin, a strong lead-in on grass.

Let’s break down the matchup and make a betting pick for the first-round showdown at the All England Club.

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Samsonova vs. Joint Odds

• Liudmila Samsonova: -200

• Maya Joint: +155

• Spread: Samsonova -3 (-115)

• Total Games: Over/Under 21.5 (O: -115 / U: -125)

• Head-to-Head: First meeting

Odds via BetMGM

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Best Bet: Liudmila Samsonova -3 (-115)

My top play for this match is on Samsonova to cover the -3 game spread. You can track real-time lines on our live Wimbledon odds page to find the best price.

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Samsonova Preview: Experience and Power on Grass

Though Samsonova has had an uneven season, grass is where her game tends to thrive. The 26-year-old Russian plays a first-strike brand of tennis, leaning on her powerful serve and aggressive baseline game — both of which are amplified on faster grass courts.

Her recent semifinal showing in Berlin was a strong indicator of form returning, and she’s backed by excellent grass-court metrics, with her Elo rating on the surface putting her inside the WTA top 20.

On grass over the past year, Samsonova has won 73% of points behind her first serve — a dominant figure that gives her a clear edge heading into this opener.

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Joint Preview: Promising Talent, Tough Test

At just 19 years old, Maya Joint is starting to make her mark on the WTA Tour. Her win in Eastbourne showcased her ability to handle pressure and deliver with both pace and consistency from the baseline. She’s also already won titles on multiple surfaces this season — an impressive feat at her age.

However, this matchup represents a significant step up. While her ground game is solid, her serve remains a vulnerability. On grass this year, she’s managed to win 65% of first-serve points in only half her matches — a stat that could spell trouble against a power player like Samsonova.

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Prediction & Betting Analysis

The biggest advantage for Samsonova may lie in the serve disparity. While Joint’s return game is respectable, she’s not yet proven she can consistently hold or neutralize elite servers on quicker surfaces.

Samsonova brings not only the raw power but also a level of experience and success on grass that should allow her to control most of the rallies — and ultimately the outcome.

Pick: Liudmila Samsonova -3 (-115)
Expect the Russian to use her superior serve and grass-court pedigree to advance to the second round in straight sets or a comfortable two-set win.